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What is happening in the civil war in Myanmar?

Myanmar’s military staged a coup in 2021, suppressing democratic reforms and jailing many of the country’s civilian leaders. Three years later, the Southeast Asian country is teetering on the brink of a failed state. Insurgents, including pro-democracy forces and ethnic militias, are battling the junta’s soldiers. Tens of thousands of people have been killed and millions more displaced.

The fighting in forests and cities across Myanmar receives little of the international attention that the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza command. Yet this country, wedged between India and China, was hailed a decade ago as a rare example of a country that peacefully transitioned from military dictatorship to democratic rule. The army putsch put an end to any illusion of political progress. Myanmar has returned to a military reign of terror and the fractured reality of civil war. The lawlessness that thrives in conflict zones radiates outward, with transnational crime networks using Myanmar as a base and exporting the products of their illegal activities worldwide.

How successful have the rebels been?

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