Working-class voters in Rust Belt cities like Pittsburgh used to be overwhelmingly Democratic, but years of economic hardship and the rise of social issues to Republican advantage have made them a volatile constituency again in 2024.
US President Joe Biden has cleared a major hurdle by securing the support of union leaders, including the United Steelworkers (USW), a key player in the battle for control of US Steel, which has cast a shadow over the 2024 campaign in Pennsylvania.
But how many rank-and-file workers ignore union leaders and vote for Donald Trump could have a decisive impact in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, where the margin could be 100,000 votes or less.
Biden supporters point to the incumbent’s reliable support for organized labor, ties to the working class in Scranton, Pennsylvania, and legislative achievements such as the 2021 infrastructure bill.
“We listened to Donald Trump talk about infrastructure for four years because there was a lot of lip service paid,” steelworker JoJo Burgess said in a Biden ad. “Joe Biden made it happen.”
“Right now we have the most pro-American labor president ever in power,” said Burgess, who is also mayor of Washington, Pennsylvania.
But Rudy Sanetta, a maintenance worker at US Steel, prefers Trump because of the economy and his stance on gun rights.
“I like him because he stands up to the politicians,” Sanetta said of Trump. “The other guy, I don’t trust.”
Working-class voters “are the most important voters because they have actually shown that they are willing to vote for Trump or Biden,” said Jonathan Cervas, a political scientist at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh.
Exit polls from Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in 2020 show that the switch to Biden of white working-class voters who voted for Trump in 2016 “had a significant impact on the difference between winning and losing,” according to a May article from progressive political consultant Mike Lux Media and the union-backed group In Union.
But the newspaper pointed to recent polls showing Biden’s support among union households fell in Wisconsin and Michigan, while Pennsylvania remained unchanged from 2020.
“Democrats need to understand that these working-class voters in the Heartland have been through many tough times over the past few decades,” the paper said. It also called for early contact with reliable sources that reflect voters’ “real experiences to counter digital disinformation and social pressure.”
Since Trump’s political rise, there has been much debate about the various reasons for the decline in support for Democrats among the white working class.
Some commentators view Trump’s 2016 unrest as at least partly a racist reaction to Barack Obama’s presidency and Trump’s embrace of issues like illegal immigration.
Other commentators, such as Ruy Teixeira of the American Enterprise Institute, call the Democratic Party’s progressive positions on issues like police reform and transgender rights alienating to voters who are more culturally conservative.
The 2023 book “Rust Belt Union Blues,” a case study of the Pittsburgh region, highlights the aftermath of the industrial downturn of the 1970s and 1980s that led to massive job losses and union closures, weakening workers’ bargaining power with companies.
The recession also diminished the role of community unions, which once held picnics and other gatherings where members donned colorful badges to promote their locals; this helped foster a sense of solidarity focused on issues such as fair wages and health care.
While unions still have some activity, many workers who survived the industry’s downsizing now socialize around religion and hunting, while politically oriented groups tend to be conservative, according to authors Lainey Newman and Theda Skocpol.
Bernie Hall, USW Pennsylvania District Leader, agreed that many union members have diverse ties, but said work remains central.
“Especially in western Pennsylvania, you know people really identify with the union,” he said.
Hall, who praised Biden as a working-class Democrat who has satisfied his voters, predicted Biden would win a majority among steelworkers but acknowledged that Trump enjoys significant support.
Some workers turned to Trump to “blow up” the system after decades of industrial decline, Hall said. “I still think that’s attractive to some people.”
Alex Barna, a machinist at U.S. Steel, was a lifelong Democrat who voted for Obama. But Barna has voted for Trump twice since 2016 and will do so again, balancing the former president’s tax cuts with a healthy economy before COVID-19.
“What affected us was the wallet and the wallet” was good, said Barna’s wife Helen, contrasting this with today’s higher inflation.
“A lot of people think about the four years of mean tweets,” Helen Barna said. “At least we lived better.”
