Not a favorite to replace Kishida as LDP chief; Doubtful voices in the LDP about the Kishida-led election campaign

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida aims to boost his government’s popularity during the current parliamentary session by enacting into law a bill revising the Political Funds Control Law and securing a way out of deflation before the presidential election campaign of the party starts.

He will carefully consider the timing of the dissolution of the House of Representatives after he is re-elected LDP president.

Kishida apparently believes that the lack of a clear rival candidate means he can win the party’s presidential election despite his cabinet’s low approval rating.

Many names have been put forward as candidates to replace Kishida, including LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi, former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, former LDP Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba and Digital Transformation Minister Taro Kono. However, none of them have succeeded in gaining large-scale support.

Previous parties’ presidential election results have demonstrated the power of the incumbent candidate. The only exception to this is former Prime Minister Takeo Fukuda’s defeat by Masahiro Ohira in 1978.

However, some members of regional LDP organizations have begun to publicly say that fighting the elections will be difficult for them with Kishida at the helm, and that such votes could spread further in the future.

Former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who has close ties to Koizumi, Ishiba and Kono, reportedly told his close aides that regional LDP organizations’ frustrations with Kishida are normal.

On Thursday evening, Suga dined with Koizumi, former Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato, former chairman of the party’s Policy Research Council Koichi Hagiuda and former Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications Ryota Takeda. It is believed that they discussed topics such as the future political situation.

Some within the party are calling for a reshuffle of the cabinet and party staff to increase the government’s approval rating. However, many doubt that Kishida would be able to make the expected staff appointments and achieve a significant improvement in his cabinet’s approval rating.

Even if Kishida manages to be re-elected as party chairman, the question of when to dissolve the lower house is likely to be a difficult issue.

The term of office of the current Members of Parliament expires in October next year.