As Manila’s relations with Beijing slide into dangerous territory, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has warned Beijing that if a Filipino citizen were deliberately killed in a clash with the Chinese coast guard, it would “come very close to what we define as an act of war.”
If the incidents in the South China Sea got to that point, “we would certainly have crossed the Rubicon,” Marcos said Friday in response to a question after delivering a keynote speech to kick off the IISS Shangri-la Dialogue security conference this year in Singapore. .
“Is that a red line? Almost certainly. It will be a red line,” the Philippine leader added, warning that Manila would respond “accordingly” while its treaty ally, the United States, would apply “the same standard” and support the Philippines in any joint action.
From laser pointers temporarily blinding Philippine sailors to collisions at sea near key military outposts, encounters between Chinese and Philippine ships have grown tense in the strategically and economically important South China Sea, where the two nations have overlapping claims.
In particular, a submerged reef known as Second Thomas Shoal has become a dangerous flashpoint, with Chinese vessels harassing vessels seeking to supply a Philippine garrison atop the BRP Sierra Madre, a rusting ship that a former Philippine government deliberately ran aground in 1999 to assert sovereignty. above the atoll.
Amid rapidly escalating tensions, Marcos used his speech at Asia’s top regional security conference to defend his country’s claims to resource-rich waters and send a strong message to China: “We will do whatever it takes to protect our sovereignty to protect.”
In a speech before delegates and senior defense officials from more than 40 countries and regions, including the U.S. and Chinese defense chiefs, the 66-year-old denounced what he said were “illegal coercive, aggressive and deceptive actions” that “continue to violate our sovereignty.” , sovereign rights and jurisdiction.”
Citing the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and a 2016 international arbitration award in favor of the Philippines, Marcos pledged to do whatever it takes to protect our sovereign home down to the last square inch to protect, down to the smallest detail. last square millimeter.”
“The life-giving waters of the West Philippine Sea flow into the blood of every Filipino. We cannot allow anyone to separate the country from the entirety of the maritime domain that our nation calls home,” Marcos said, referring to Manila’s official designation for areas it claims in the South China Sea.
“I have no intention of giving in,” he added. “Filipinos are not giving in.”
To achieve this, Marcos pledged to continue to strengthen the country’s defenses and develop the capacity to project the country’s armed forces in areas “where we must, by constitutional duty and by legal right, protect our interests.”
At the same time, the Philippine leader pledged not only to strengthen Manila’s alliance with Washington, but also international partnerships with Australia, Japan, France, South Korea and India, as well as all members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
At the same time, he described the United States’ military presence in the region as not only stabilizing but also “critical for regional peace,” urging Washington and Beijing to manage their rivalry “responsibly.”
While much of the attention has focused on the Taiwan Strait as the most likely area where war could break out in Asia, there are growing concerns that the spark for conflict could be ignited in the South China Sea, most likely due to a accident or miscalculation.
Earlier this month, Beijing introduced regulations to promote the Chinese Coast Guard powers to detain foreign “offenders” for up to 60 days without trial – a move criticized by Marcos as further increasing tensions. The new policy, which will take effect from June 15, is an “escalation of the situation”, the Philippine leader said earlier this week, calling the development “very worrying”.
China has also imposed a unilateral fishing ban in parts of the South China Sea until September 16, including in the controversial Scarborough Shoal, which Manila wants to open to international scrutiny after accusing Chinese vessels of destroying the local ecosystem.
The two sides also exchanged views on an elusive “gentlemen’s agreement,” which China claims has kept peace in a disputed area of the waterway for years.
While China claims about 90% of the energy-rich South China Sea, which is also home to crucial trade routes, Manila insists that the Second Thomas Shoal falls within its exclusive economic zone – which extends 200 nautical miles (370 kilometers) from the coast – and has vowed “never to leave the area.”
While there are many factors affecting bilateral ties, the election of Marcos in May 2022 may have brought about the biggest change in direction last year.
Shortly after taking office, the new leader took a more assertive stance on territorial disputes, breaking with his predecessor’s staunchly pro-China policy, pledging not to lose an “inch” of territory and regularly questioning China’s naval behavior. denounced.
The recent developments are just the latest in a series of clashes that not only worsen Sino-Philippine ties but could also threaten to escalate into a larger crisis, including one that also involves the United States, which has a mutual defense treaty with Manila.
At a trilateral summit last month with Marcos and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, US President Joe Biden reiterated Washington’s commitment to defend the Philippines from armed attacks in the South China Sea. “Any attack on Philippine aircraft, ships or forces in the South China Sea would invoke our mutual defense treaty,” Biden said last month.
The Philippines’ proximity to both Taiwan and major shipping lanes in the South China Sea makes it an attractive base for the US and its allies, which could enhance their ability to respond to regional crises. This has made strengthening defense ties with Manila a crucial element in both Tokyo and Washington’s plans to both deter and counter Beijing.
Washington, which last year gained access to four more military sites in the Philippines — in addition to the previously agreed five — has rapidly ramped up Philippine defense capabilities as part of a 10-year roadmap that will see Manila receive equipment such as radars, military transport aircraft and drones, as well as coastal and air defense systems.
Washington has also increased the size and complexity of both bilateral and multilateral exercises, including the temporary deployment of an intermediate-range missile system to the Philippines – the first time the US has done so since the end of the Cold War – in a move criticized by critics criticized. Beijing as an act of escalation.
For its part, Tokyo has also deepened defense and security ties with Manila, providing a $415 million loan earlier this month to build five additional 97-meter patrol vessels for the Philippine Coast Guard, in addition to the two already handed over in 2022 and the 10 44 meter ships agreed in 2013. Deliveries of the five new ships are scheduled for 2027 and 2028.
Japan and the Philippines are expected to sign an agreement on visiting military forces during the meeting of their foreign and defense ministers in Manila next month. This step will not only facilitate joint military exercises but also potentially enable rotational deployments by the Self-Defense Forces.
While Japan and the United States have separately strengthened ties with Manila, Washington has recently worked to bring the countries closer together to deepen trilateral cooperation and build what it calls “collective capacity” amid shared regional security concerns.
These steps include conducting trilateral Coast Guard exercises and patrols this year to improve interoperability, including plans for members of the Philippine and Japanese Coast Guards to patrol aboard U.S. Coast Guard vessels.
Marcos has also sought to expand the country’s network of security partners beyond Washington and Tokyo, signing security cooperation agreements with the European Union, India, Australia, Vietnam, Brunei and Britain, while also seeking to visiting force agreements with Japan, Canada and France. .
The pacts could give Manila one of the most robust security networks in Asia, while also increasing the global stakes in these regional disputes.
