1:00 JST, May 7, 2024
BEIJING / WASHINGTON – The Chinese military’s new stealth bomber, the H-20, appears to be in the final stages of its development. This next-generation strategic bomber is expected to significantly enhance China’s anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy aimed at deterring US military action in the event of an unforeseen event involving Taiwan.
The United States is increasingly alarmed that the H-20 could have capabilities close to those of American bombers.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin expressed deep concern about the modernization of China’s military during a ceremony in Hawaii on Friday to mark the change in leadership of the US Indo-Pacific Command.
“The People’s Republic of China [People’s Republic of China] is the only country with both the will – and, increasingly, the ability – to dominate the Indo-Pacific and reshape the world order to fit its autocratic vision. And that is why the People’s Republic of China remains the department’s challenge,” Austin said.
The H-20 in particular could be a game changer. It is believed that China developed the strategic bomber on its own. According to an annual report published by the US Department of Defense last October, the H-20 will be able to fly more than 10,000 kilometers without mid-air refueling.
The report states that the H-20 is considered capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear munitions, and has stealth capabilities that make it difficult to be spotted by an enemy. The bomber will have a flight range covering the second island chain, connecting the Izu Islands with Guam and other areas, as well as the western Pacific region. Moreover, that range “could be extended to the entire world with aerial refueling,” the report says.
China’s current H-6 bomber is based on a former Soviet bomber and has a range of less than 10,000 kilometers unless it is an air-refuelable type. The H-6 is said to be capable of striking as far as the US military base in Guam, but its lack of stealth capabilities means it is likely to end up in the air defenses of Japan and the United States.
Since China announced plans to develop the H-20 in 2016, progress in creating the bomber had long been kept under wraps. However, Wang Wei, deputy commander of the Chinese Air Force, told the Hong Kong Commercial Daily in March this year that an official announcement about the H-20 is coming soon. Wait a minute!” The comment brought renewed attention to the H-20.
China’s A2/AD strategy aims to prevent US forces from penetrating the first island chain connecting the Nansei Islands to the Philippines, and to block US military maneuvers within the second island chain, which is further east.
Because the H-20 can use its stealth capabilities to slip through the air defense network and close in on a target, the Chinese military is expected to increase the success rate of its attacks.
The H-20 will “undermine and enhance the advantage of the United States and Japan [China’s] A2/AD ability to prevent U.S. military intervention in the event of an emergency in Taiwan,” said Junichi Araki, a former Air Self-Defense Force lieutenant general who served in such positions as commander of the Southwestern Composite Air Division.
Although the Chinese military is rapidly developing equipment, it is said to lack experience in large-scale actual combat. To overcome this weakness, the country has been actively conducting joint training with Russia, which has a wealth of combat experience. Since July 2019, China and Russia have begun joint bomber flights in the vicinity of Japan.
It is believed that China is trying to increase its ability to operate bombers by strengthening cooperation with Russia to counter Japan and the United States.
3 pillars of Chinese nuclear power
At the 2022 National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized the need to strengthen his country’s nuclear capabilities and expressed the intention to build a strong strategic deterrent system. China considers nuclear-capable bombers, ground-launched intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and ground-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) as the three pillars of its strategic nuclear weapons.
China’s ICBMs have a range that reaches the continental United States. China is developing the DF-41, an ICBM that is believed to be able to carry ten nuclear warheads with a range of about 7,200 miles. The company is also reportedly building an underground storage facility for ICBMs.
As for the SLBM field, China’s strategic nuclear submarines are currently equipped with the JL-2 with a range of about 7,200 kilometers. Some observers believe the deployment of the JL-3, with a range of about 7,500 miles covering the entire U.S. mainland, is also making progress.
In addition to land and sea, the H-20 will further strengthen China’s nuclear capabilities in the air. For the Xi administration, which has pledged to build a world-class military, the strategic bomber is intended to showcase the country’s advanced technology.
