Britain’s general election could only prolong the fierce ideological debate that has gripped the Conservative Party for 14 years in power, even if it suffers the heaviest defeats predicted by some polls.
The Conservative Party that emerges from Thursday’s national vote is likely to retain a similar split between centrists and right-wing parties as before, according to a Bloomberg analysis of public election forecast data. There were some indications that moderates could slightly increase their influence within the parliamentary party, though the debate over how to win back supporters of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is expected to haunt any Tories who win seats.
The analysis drew on data from eight so-called MRP surveys by pollsters including Ipsos, Savanta and YouGov, which showed the left-wing Labour Party on course for a historic majority of more than 150 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons. Large-sample surveys, which use demographic data and statistical models to project constituency-by-constituency results, showed the Conservatives holding on to somewhere between 50 and 150 seats.
