Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, left, waves in Matsue on Saturday, where he delivered a speech in support of a Liberal Democratic Party candidate in the House of Representatives by-election.
15:54 JST, April 29, 2024
The Liberal Democratic Party’s effective defeat in all three House of Representatives by-elections on Sunday is likely to fuel speculation that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will struggle to dissolve the lower house.
Of the three constituencies in play – Tokyo Constituency No. 15, Shimane Constituency No. 1 and Nagasaki Constituency No. 3 – the LDP only fielded a candidate in the Shimane race and lost that battle to the opposition party Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan.
Kishida, who is also president of the LDP, will almost certainly see his influence within the party diminish, which will cast a shadow on his government management.
“This often happens in elections that take place after a scandal,” Kishida reportedly told people around him on Sunday. “We have no choice but to overcome the challenges one by one.”
LDP members may increasingly distance themselves from Kishida, but there are currently no signs that efforts to remove him from the party leadership are gaining strength.
“If it turns out that the party is involved in infighting, it will have a negative impact,” said a former cabinet member, adding that LDP members are exercising restraint amid the strong headwinds now plaguing the party.
Another reason for the lack of significant criticism of Kishida may be that many lawmakers have been away from the Diet during the Golden Week holiday period for foreign travel and regional activities.
The Prime Minister is said to be aware that it will be extremely difficult to dissolve the House of Representatives in June, but he still retains that option.
A flat-rate tax cut, a key policy of the Kishida government, is expected to be implemented in June. Some in the government hope that the atmosphere will change as the economic situation improves due to tax cuts and wage increases. It is believed that Kishida plans to take steps if the approval rating for his cabinet recovers to some extent once the revisions to the Law on the Control of Political Funds are completed by the end of the current legislature.
Whether the Reichstag should be dissolved is considered solely the decision of the Prime Minister. However, if Kishida tries to push through such a move, he will certainly face a backlash from LDP members concerned about a possible loss of seats in the Diet. It is therefore becoming increasingly difficult to dissolve the Diet.
“If the prime minister tries to dissolve the lower house, I will do everything I can to stop him,” an LDP executive told a younger lawmaker. Senior officials from Komeito, the LDP’s coalition partner, have also openly expressed their desire not to hold early elections in the near future.
If Kishida decides to dissolve the lower house and the LDP loses a significant number of seats, he may find it difficult to run for the LDP presidency again. Some people close to the prime minister are cautious. One of them said: ‘It would be best for him to refrain from political maneuvering, including personnel changes, and instead focus on implementing policy and seeking a mandate in government. [LDP] presidential elections.”
Will post-Kishida movements gain momentum?
Kishida’s presidential term with the LDP ends in September. The best-case scenario for him is to win the next Lower House elections and then smoothly secure his re-election as LDP president, based on voters’ confidence.
However, the LDP’s dismal performance in Sunday’s midterm elections is expected to lead some LDP members to think Kishida is “not a sufficient face for the elections” for the party. Given that, LDP members are likely to become more aware of the steps toward a post-Kishida leadership.
Among Cabinet ministers and senior party officials, LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi, Digital Minister Taro Kono and Sanae Takaichi, minister in charge of economic security, see the opportunity to run for the LDP’s top position.
Motegi appears to want to expand his support by taking advantage of his good relationship with LDP Vice President Taro Aso, who maintains his own party faction and serves as Kishida’s “backer.” Motegi also repeatedly dines with younger members of the faction once led by the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
Kono and Takaichi, who both ran in the 2021 LDP presidential race, have held regular study sessions, fueling speculation that they are trying to gain a foothold in future presidential elections. Takaichi has made no secret of her desire to run, saying, “I will be happy to fight again.”
Former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, former LDP Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba and Kono have strong name recognition, potentially gaining more support within the party as “the face of the elections” to replace Kishida. Both Koizumi and Ishiba were asked by the party to visit the Shimane constituency to support the LDP candidate during the campaign, even though they do not currently hold leadership positions in the LDP.
There is speculation that the trio could gain support from non-mainstream LDP factions, such as those led by former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and former Secretary General Toshihiro Nikai. Suga and Nikai have kept a certain distance from Kishida.
Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa has attracted attention as a possible candidate for the country’s first female prime minister. Aso has described her as a “new star,” and respondents to a recent poll conducted by several companies ranked her high in the top marks for a possible next LDP president.
