Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Russia on Monday for the first time in five years, as Moscow increasingly seeks rapprochement with New Delhi’s rival, China.
Modi will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin during the visit, which runs through Tuesday. Indian Foreign Minister Vinay Kwatra told reporters in New Delhi that given the lack of recent summits, several issues have piled up on the bilateral agenda that need to be addressed.
Senior Indian diplomats, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that while major announcements are unlikely, Modi’s visit is intended to send a signal that the two sides remain close. Russia’s ties with India date back to the Cold War, and the country is India’s largest supplier of arms and oil. That relationship has remained “resilient,” Kwatra said.
India, however, is watching closely as Russia edges closer to China, which has served as an economic and diplomatic lifeline amid sanctions over the Kremlin’s grinding war on Ukraine. At a security summit in Kazakhstan last week, Putin described relations with China as the “best in history.”
Relations between India and China have been at a low point since a border dispute erupted into violence in 2020, but both sides have agreed to hold talks to resolve the disagreement.
“India, situated between Russia, China and the West, demands more predictability from Russia and is ready to play a greater role in promoting peace” in Ukraine, said Petr Topychkanov, senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
“However, behind closed doors, Putin may face questions from Modi about the increasingly close ties between Russia and China,” he said.
Moscow is Modi’s first bilateral visit since winning a third term in office last month. His decision to travel to Russia instead of neighbouring countries such as Bhutan, the Maldives and Sri Lanka marks a break in convention for Indian leaders. For Moscow, the trip helps counter Western attempts to portray Putin as a pariah over his February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, while also strengthening ties with a key trading partner and major buyer of its oil.
Measures to reduce a trade imbalance between the two countries are likely to figure prominently in the talks, Kwatra said. India currently imports about $60 billion a year worth of goods from Russia, which buys less than $5 billion from India. China’s actions in the Indo-Pacific could also be discussed, India’s top diplomat said.
While the Indian and Russian leaders had met annually in previous years, Modi began skipping such summits after Putin threatened to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine in 2022. The two last met that year at a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Uzbekistan.
Future arms deals could also be on the agenda, said Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow-based defense think tank. He said Russia could supply India with new air defense systems and Su-30MKI fighter jets, as well as licensed production of Ka-226T multi-role helicopters. India faces a severe shortage of fighter jets and is considering buying a dozen more from Russia to replace those lost in accidents.
Modi’s trip comes just weeks after a team of senior US officials traveled to India to discuss technology, security and investment cooperation. Modi has sought deeper cooperation with the US and urged Washington to boost technology transfer and foreign investment.
The U.S., for its part, sees India as a partner in its rivalry with China, but the relationship has at times frustrated Washington. Modi has refused to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, even as he has pressed for diplomacy. U.S. prosecutors are also investigating an alleged assassination plot on U.S. soil that they say involved senior Indian officials.
US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said in late June that US officials had expressed concerns about India-Russia relations with New Delhi, but that Washington still has confidence in India and wants to expand ties.
In addition to talks with Putin, Modi is also expected to meet members of the Indian community in Russia, where about 14,000 Indians live, including 4,500 students, according to the Indian embassy.
