15:52 JST, May 2, 2024
The loss of all three seats on offer in Sunday’s House of Representatives by-election was a serious blow to the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. This third and final part in a series examines issues surrounding Japan’s main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party following its victories in these midterm elections.
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CDPJ chief Kenta Izumi grinned from ear to ear as he basked in the adulation heaped upon him by participants at a May Day event held in Sapporo on Wednesday.
“Congratulations on your three victories,” said one participant, referring to the CDPJ’s by-election to the House of Commons. While enjoying the moment, Izumi expressed his determination to keep the ball rolling.
“I think this is just a stepping stone,” Izumi said during the event. “We will continue to stay in touch with our colleagues across the country.”
Even before the midterm elections, Izumi had sensed that the wind was beginning to blow at the CDPJ’s back in the wake of political funding scandals involving several LDP factions.
A survey quietly conducted in March into the prospects for the next Lower House elections had found that the CDPJ could more than double the number of seats in single-seat constituencies from 58 to around 120. Combined with the seats, the party can win in the House of Representatives. In the proportional representation department, the CDPJ was on track to achieve Izumi’s goals: his party would win 150 seats and the ruling parties would lose their majority in the House.
In view of these survey results, CPDJ Secretary General Katsuya Okada has issued instructions to accelerate efforts to field more candidates in the proportional representation section. This stemmed from his experience in the 2009 Lower House elections, when the then Democratic Party of Japan came to power. In those elections, the DPJ did not field enough candidates for the Kinki proportional representation bloc, and instead two seats were reallocated to other parties.
‘Important political situation’
Izumi believes that tabling a vote of no confidence against Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s cabinet could become his party’s biggest weapon in the second half of the current term.
On Sunday evening, Jun Azumi, chairman of the CDPJ’s Dietary Affairs Committee, discussed the midterm election results. “The public criticism of the LDP is staggering,” Azumi told a close aide. “Taking a motion of no confidence could create a major political situation.”
The CDPJ plan revolves around the ruling parties’ recent proposal to amend the Law on the Control of Political Funds. The CDPJ expects that if it rejects this proposal as lukewarm and files a motion of no confidence, some LDP members who have been critical of Kishida could throw their support behind the motion.
In 1993, during the reign of then Prime Minister Kiichi Miyazawa, senior LDP leaders gave up on passing a political reform bill centering on electoral reform after failing to gain support to consolidate the plan. A vote of no confidence filed by the opposition parties was passed following a revolt by then-powerful LDP figures, including Ichiro Ozawa.
SUBHEAD: Debate on leadership change
Despite the recent developments, a CDPJ member who was previously a minister refused to get carried away.
“I feel none of the excitement that was palpable the days before the DPJ took over the reins of government. Right now it feels like it’s just a gentle breeze,” the CDPJ member said.
In a national opinion poll conducted by The Yomiuri Shimbun just before the 2009 House of Representatives elections, 32.2% of respondents said they supported the DPJ. This was comfortably more than the 26.7% who said they supported the LDP. But a similar survey conducted in April this year found support for the CDPJ at barely 5%, far below the 24% of respondents who favored the LDP.
Sunday’s by-election victories were the first in both parliamentary chambers of the CDPJ led by Izumi. Even some members of Izumi’s own party are convinced he should be replaced due to a perceived lack of ability.
Izumi’s term as party head ends in September. Some members have encouraged former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and former CDPJ leader Yukio Edano to throw their hats into the ring. Mid-ranking MP Kazuhiko Shigetoku has also indicated his willingness to join the leadership race.
Ozawa is now a CDPJ member of the lower house. At a meeting of his own political faction on April 23, Ozawa took a veiled swipe at Izumi. “To bring about a change in government, we need a leadership group that can bring the opposition parties together,” Ozawa said.
Realistic approach
Ozawa pays special attention to cooperation with the Japanese Communist Party, which is expected to gain a certain number of loyal votes in each constituency. The JCP contributed to the CDPJ’s three victories in the last by-election by choosing not to field candidates, including in the race for the No. 1 constituency in Shimane Prefecture, the only direct contest between opposition and ruling bloc candidates .
However, the CDPJ and the JCP share little opinion on basic policies on issues such as the constitution, foreign policy and security. Building a closer relationship will not be easy if the CDPJ wants to gain support from voters across the political spectrum, such as moderate conservatives and non-partisans.
“We need to make a realistic policy decision,” said Akira Nagatsuma, chairman of the CDPJ Policy Research Committee, during a meeting with Japanese Trade Union Confederation (Rengo) officials during the Diet on March 6. Nagatsuma announced that his party planned to support a bill to establish a government-approved “security clearance system” that would prevent authorized individuals from accessing sensitive economic security information.
There was some reluctance to support the bill, but Nagatsuma apparently went ahead with the move to distinguish the CDPJ from the JCP and other parties opposed to the legislation. Despite this, concerns remain within the CDPJ about the party’s approach.
“Unless we change the current situation of relying on the cooperation of the JCPs in elections, people will doubt our ability to lead a government that is seen as the CDPJ depending on the JCP,” said a CDPJ official member.
This series was written by Michitaka Kaiya, Chie Morifuji, Masashi Nakata, and Takeo Maeda.
