“To make connectivity between Japan and Europe rock-solid, the Indo-Pacific, the maritime route leading to the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, must be free and open.” In a speech in Brussels in September 2019, then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe expressed his feelings about Europe and the role it plays in securing the future of the Indo-Pacific, a region vital to Europe’s economic survival.
Abe saw Europe’s involvement as crucial to balancing economic and political forces at the global level, especially at a time when trade rivalry between the United States and China was flaring and Washington was brandishing its “America First” policy. In an international setting where shared values and interests strengthen solidarity, it is no wonder that the European Union and Japan became “natural” partners.
Three years later, Abe reiterated his view on Europe’s crucial role. In the last text he wrote before his assassination on July 8, 2022, he alluded to European countries as values-based partners and the need to deepen ties with them, even as the four original Indo-Pacific partners — Australia, India, Japan and the US — forged an important framework in the face of threats. This was in line with Abe’s long-standing belief in expanding the “circle of free societies”.
Known for his strong Indo-Pacific vision, Abe also showed a preference for Europe during his second term. He launched his Europe-oriented policy at the 2013 Group of Eight summit in Northern Ireland, calling for accelerated negotiations on the Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) and the Japan-EU Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA).
Later, in March 2017, shortly after the inauguration of US President Donald Trump, Abe was in Germany to defend free trade and emphasize a “free and open international order” to German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Just over a year later, in July 2018, the EPA and SPA were finalized, likely propelled by the consolidation of mutual interests between Japan and the EU in light of the Trump administration’s policies.
Strategically, Europe has taken a geopolitical turn under European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, with the 27-member EU body moving in a direction consistent with a “free and open Indo-Pacific” – a strategy known as FOIP – first presented by Abe in August 2016.
Furthermore, the EU’s own Indo-Pacific strategy, formulated in 2021, echoes the principles of the late former Prime Minister’s strategy, which focused on maritime security, the rule of law and regional security and stability. Abe’s vision of the “Confluence of the Two Seas”, announced in a speech to the Indian parliament in 2007, also proved crucial for Europe due to the bloc’s dependence on Indo-Pacific trade routes and the direct link between its stability, security and prosperity of the respective regions.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has continued to apply Abe’s strategic thinking, but has taken it even further in dealing with Russia. He has taken a tougher stance on President Vladimir Putin than Abe ever did. Moscow’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine, widely regarded as an existential threat to international security, has prompted Kishida to initiate a drastic change in Japan’s foreign and defense policy.
Given Beijing’s support for a belligerent Moscow, Europe’s previously rosy view of China as a manageable economic partner has faded. With Tokyo emerging as a trusted values-based partner for European capitals, Kishida has successfully capitalized on the momentum to strengthen Japan’s position, work on pressing security issues, and side with Europe.
Japan was one of the few Asian countries to impose sanctions on Russia from the start, while providing financial, humanitarian, and nonlethal military aid to Ukraine. Kishida’s efforts to connect European and East Asian security are based on realism and the advancement of Japan’s national interests — Japan’s aid is partly a strategic investment to gain European support for Tokyo’s own concerns.
Beyond the analysis, Japan, because of its positioning vis-à-vis the West and its support for crucial agendas, now enjoys a privileged status among European policymakers – a fact that would have been almost unthinkable a decade ago, when their attention was entirely focused on China.
Not many people know that Abe has long been sowing the seeds on the European front. In 2007, he became the first Japanese prime minister to visit NATO headquarters, which he visited a second time seven years later. On the latter occasion, he gave a speech entitled “Japan and NATO as ‘natural partners’.”
While Europe debated the merits of cooperative security versus collective defense, Abe spent 2015 working to enable Japan to exercise collective defense, albeit in a limited way. In doing so, he paved the way for Kishida to realize this vision. Tokyo’s current defense trajectory—from increasing its defense budget to co-producing military equipment—must thus be seen through an evolutionary, rather than revolutionary, lens.
Europe is in turmoil as Russia seeks to reassert its imperial ambitions. NATO and what it stands for have found greater resonance even in traditionally neutral European states such as Finland and Sweden. In today’s era of complex global challenges, strengthened ties between NATO and Japan are crucial to addressing mutual challenges.
Abe was a strong advocate of strengthening a free, open and rules-based Indo-Pacific. He not only led Japan away from total dependence on the US for its security, but also actively pursued the creation of a coalition of like-minded democracies.
The Euro-Indo-Pacific alliance is his main legacy, shielding him from Beijing-sponsored coercion and a belligerent North Korea. A Taiwan contingency ― which Abe famously compared to a contingency for Japan ― is where such a coalition would prove most relevant.
That Japan and a generally non-confrontational bloc like the EU are discussing broader strategic cooperation today is largely due to the consequences of authoritarian states’ assertiveness. Such new connections would not have been possible without Abe’s foreign policy foresight. His role in encouraging Europe’s watchful eye on authoritarian states’ power, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, should be kept in mind.
Jagannath Panda is head of the Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs at the Institute for Security and Development Policy in Sweden and professor at the University of Warsaw. Kei Hakata is a professor at Seikei University in Tokyo.
